Water AlliesTier 2
at FORTRESS AMB REGIONALS
decks
4
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
10-12-1
overall winrate
45.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
46.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1242
· median 1291
· range 1033–1353
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1186
Q3 1422
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.0% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 35.1% | -8.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.8% | +2.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 47.1% | -1.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
